Generated from 470 reconstructed games (2024-08-26 → 2026-06-17).
Method. Each game is anchored on its final roster post (captain = author, players = the numbered list). The chat window after inferred kickoff is read by an LLM (gpt-4.1-mini) to extract strikes, scores and notes. All rates below are computed over the analysis universe: games that were actually played and produced a detectable recap.
Games where the captain handed out strikes, among games they captained that had a recap.
| Captain | recap games | % with ≥1 strike | strikes/game | vs baseline | Fisher p |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conor Scanlon | 136 | 68% | 1.47 | +6% | 0.226 |
| Anthony | 109 | 67% | 1.19 | +5% | 0.413 |
| Noah Meyer | 84 | 65% | 1.50 | +3% | 0.703 |
| William Xu | 22 | 64% | 1.18 | +0% | 1.000 |
| AbuBakr Sangare | 19 | 21% | 0.32 | -45% | 0.000 |
| Jordan | 5 | 20% | 0.80 | -44% | 0.062 |
| Raul | 3 | 33% | 0.67 | -30% | 0.302 |
| Samuel | 3 | 100% | 2.00 | +37% | 0.557 |
Does a player merely being rostered move the strike rate? (All recapped games; in-group vs everyone else.)
| Condition | N | % with strike | strikes/game | odds ratio | Fisher p |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conor present | 218 | 69% | 1.53 | 1.76 | 0.0082 |
| Conor absent | 171 | 56% | 1.02 | — | — |
| Noah present | 130 | 65% | 1.52 | 1.13 | 0.655 |
| Noah absent | 259 | 63% | 1.20 | — | — |
Strict test of your hypothesis: does Conor/Noah's mere presence raise strikes even when someone else is captaining? Excludes games they captained, and compares games where they were rostered-but-not-captain against games where they were absent and not captain.
| Condition | N | % with strike | strikes/game | odds ratio | Fisher p |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conor present, not captain | 91 | 70% | 1.59 | 1.85 | 0.031 |
| Conor absent & not captain | 162 | 56% | 1.01 | — | — |
| Noah present, not captain | 57 | 63% | 1.46 | 1.01 | 1.000 |
| Noah absent & not captain | 248 | 63% | 1.21 | — | — |
Baseline P(strike) across all recapped games = 63%.
| Condition | N | % with strike | strikes/game | vs baseline | odds ratio | Fisher p |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either present (Conor ∨ Noah) | 260 | 67% | 1.49 | +4% | 1.63 | 0.0334 |
| Both present (Conor ∧ Noah) | 88 | 69% | 1.65 | +6% | 1.40 | 0.210 |
| Only Conor (¬Noah) | 130 | 69% | 1.45 | +6% | 1.46 | 0.118 |
| Only Noah (¬Conor) | 42 | 57% | 1.26 | -6% | 0.74 | 0.398 |
| Neither present | 129 | 56% | 0.95 | -8% | 0.61 | 0.0334 |
This group is overwhelmingly a 7am operation; evening games are rare, so the PM row is too small (n≈10) to support a real conclusion — shown for completeness.
| Slot | N | % with strike | strikes/game |
|---|---|---|---|
| AM | 379 | 64% | 1.32 |
| PM | 10 | 50% | 0.90 |
AM vs PM difference: odds ratio 1.77, Fisher p = 0.507.
| Captain | AM games | AM % strike | PM games | PM % strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conor Scanlon | 131 | 68% | 5 | 60% |
| Anthony | 108 | 68% | 1 | 0% |
| Noah Meyer | 84 | 65% | 0 | — |
| William Xu | 19 | 63% | 3 | 67% |
| AbuBakr Sangare | 18 | 22% | 1 | 0% |
| Jordan | 5 | 20% | 0 | — |
When Conor plays, and whether some days are safer than others. Baseline strike rate = 63%.
| Day | games | Conor plays | strike rate | strikes/game | Conor present | Conor absent |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 61 | 66% | 62% | 1.30 | 65% (n=40) | 57% (n=21) |
| Tuesday | 73 | 56% | 63% | 1.10 | 66% (n=41) | 59% (n=32) |
| Wednesday | 73 | 60% | 63% | 1.38 | 70% (n=44) | 52% (n=29) |
| Thursday | 70 | 29% | 67% | 1.20 | 75% (n=20) | 64% (n=50) |
| Friday | 64 | 75% | 66% | 1.42 | 73% (n=48) | 44% (n=16) |
| Saturday | 47 | 53% | 57% | 1.53 | 68% (n=25) | 45% (n=22) |
Reading it: Conor is a Friday regular (plays ~75% of Fridays) and skips Thursdays (only ~29%). The calmest day overall is Saturday (~57% strike rate), and Conor's absence does the most work on Fri/Sat (strike rate drops to ~44–45%). Thursdays are the strike-heaviest day despite Conor usually being absent — so dodging him by playing Thursday backfires. There is no day that is both Conor-light and low-strike; the real sweet spot is a Friday or Saturday he happens to skip.
| Strikes received | Player |
|---|---|
| 12 | peter de la cruz |
| 12 | mwad s. algadafi |
| 11 | peter danenberg |
| 11 | luka |
| 10 | john rodriguez |
| 9 | simon |
| 8 | brandon yah |
| 8 | alex cho |
| 7 | thai tong |
| 7 | hamido |
| 7 | saeed |
| 6 | andrew mcentaggart |
| 6 | sam |
| 6 | anthony |
| 6 | abhinav lalwani |
dataset.csv.