Generated from 560 rostered games, 524 of them played (2024-08-26 → 2026-09-26).
Method. Each game is anchored on its final roster post (captain = author, players = the numbered list). An LLM (gpt-4.1-mini) reads the chat twice: from the roster post to kickoff, to catch games called off the night before, and from kickoff on, to extract strikes, scores and notes. Every game that was played counts; strikes are called in the chat, so a game where nobody called one had none.
Share of each captain's games that had at least one strike.
| Captain | games | % with ≥1 strike | strikes/game | vs baseline | Fisher p |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conor Scanlon | 180 | 62% | 1.37 | +6% | 0.164 |
| Anthony | 137 | 62% | 1.12 | +6% | 0.228 |
| Noah Meyer | 111 | 58% | 1.32 | +0% | 1.000 |
| William Xu | 28 | 64% | 1.21 | +7% | 0.557 |
| AbuBakr Sangare | 24 | 12% | 0.17 | -47% | 0.000 |
| Raul | 16 | 62% | 1.12 | +5% | 0.800 |
| Jordan | 6 | 33% | 1.17 | -24% | 0.409 |
| Peter Danenberg | 6 | 0% | 0.00 | -58% | 0.006 |
| Samuel | 4 | 75% | 1.50 | +18% | 0.640 |
| Nicholas Grant Carson | 4 | 50% | 0.75 | -7% | 1.000 |
| Habeeb Salau | 3 | 33% | 1.33 | -24% | 0.578 |
Does a player merely being rostered move the strike rate? (All played games; in-group vs everyone else.)
| Condition | N | % with strike | strikes/game | odds ratio | Fisher p |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conor present | 285 | 63% | 1.42 | 1.67 | 0.0045 |
| Conor absent | 239 | 51% | 0.92 | — | — |
| Noah present | 172 | 59% | 1.36 | 1.12 | 0.573 |
| Noah absent | 352 | 57% | 1.11 | — | — |
Strict test of your hypothesis: does Conor/Noah's mere presence raise strikes even when someone else is captaining? Excludes games they captained, and compares games where they were rostered-but-not-captain against games where they were absent and not captain.
| Condition | N | % with strike | strikes/game | odds ratio | Fisher p |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conor present, not captain | 118 | 63% | 1.43 | 1.59 | 0.052 |
| Conor absent & not captain | 226 | 51% | 0.93 | — | — |
| Noah present, not captain | 74 | 59% | 1.34 | 1.11 | 0.795 |
| Noah absent & not captain | 339 | 57% | 1.12 | — | — |
Baseline P(strike) across all played games = 57%.
| Condition | N | % with strike | strikes/game | vs baseline | odds ratio | Fisher p |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either present (Conor ∨ Noah) | 343 | 61% | 1.35 | +3% | 1.51 | 0.0325 |
| Both present (Conor ∧ Noah) | 114 | 64% | 1.54 | +7% | 1.42 | 0.110 |
| Only Conor (¬Noah) | 171 | 63% | 1.33 | +5% | 1.37 | 0.109 |
| Only Noah (¬Conor) | 58 | 50% | 1.00 | -7% | 0.71 | 0.260 |
| Neither present | 181 | 51% | 0.90 | -7% | 0.66 | 0.0325 |
This group is overwhelmingly a morning operation; evening games are rare, so the PM row is too small (n=15) to support a real conclusion — shown for completeness. It is also an undercount: see Caveats.
| Slot | N | % with strike | strikes/game |
|---|---|---|---|
| AM | 509 | 58% | 1.21 |
| PM | 15 | 33% | 0.60 |
AM vs PM difference: odds ratio 2.78, Fisher p = 0.066.
| Captain | AM games | AM % strike | PM games | PM % strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conor Scanlon | 173 | 62% | 7 | 43% |
| Anthony | 134 | 63% | 3 | 0% |
| Noah Meyer | 111 | 58% | 0 | — |
| William Xu | 24 | 67% | 4 | 50% |
| AbuBakr Sangare | 24 | 12% | 0 | — |
| Raul | 16 | 62% | 0 | — |
| Jordan | 6 | 33% | 0 | — |
| Peter Danenberg | 6 | 0% | 0 | — |
When Conor plays, and whether some days are safer than others. Baseline strike rate = 57%.
| Day | games | Conor plays | strike rate | strikes/game | Conor present | Conor absent |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 83 | 63% | 55% | 1.12 | 58% (n=52) | 52% (n=31) |
| Tuesday | 93 | 57% | 60% | 1.06 | 64% (n=53) | 55% (n=40) |
| Wednesday | 94 | 60% | 57% | 1.27 | 62% (n=56) | 50% (n=38) |
| Thursday | 89 | 27% | 62% | 1.12 | 71% (n=24) | 58% (n=65) |
| Friday | 87 | 79% | 66% | 1.54 | 68% (n=69) | 56% (n=18) |
| Saturday | 73 | 41% | 42% | 1.05 | 57% (n=30) | 33% (n=43) |
| Sunday | 5 | 20% | 40% | 0.60 | 0% (n=1) | 50% (n=4) |
Reading it: Conor plays most on Fridays (~79% of them) and least on Thursdays (~27%). The strike-heaviest day is Friday (66%) and the calmest is Saturday (42%). His absence does the most work on Sat/Wed, where the strike rate drops to ~33%–50% when he skips. Thursdays stay strike-heavy (62%) despite Conor usually being absent — dodging him by playing Thursday doesn't help. The closest thing to a safe day is a Saturday: Conor plays fewer than half of them, and it is the calmest day of the week.
| Strikes received | Player |
|---|---|
| 15 | mwad s. algadafi |
| 14 | peter de la cruz |
| 14 | peter danenberg |
| 12 | luka |
| 11 | simon |
| 11 | alex cho |
| 10 | saeed |
| 10 | javier |
| 9 | john rodriguez |
| 9 | hamido |
| 8 | anthony |
| 8 | brandon yah |
| 8 | abraham |
| 8 | alexis |
| 7 | taylor brashear |
fetch_bridge.py), which keeps a message's original text rather than its edits and has no polls or captions. Strike calls are rarely edited; in-game 'HURRY UP' lists often are.dataset.csv. Hand-checked fixes live in corrections.json, each with the quote that decides it (4 so far, all a player mentioned with a strike counted as given one).